Posted by
Daniel Girard on Tuesday, November 25, 2008 4:05:39 AM
Pacific Rim nations assured the world Sunday that the global
financial crisis can be quelled in 18 months, but provided few details
of how they expect that to happen - or how their governments can
help.
The 21 economies, which represent more than
half of the world's productive power, also pledged during a two-day
summit not to erect new protectionist barriers for the next year, and
to jump-start stalled World Trade Organization
talks.
The main accomplishment of the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation forum was a widening of support for the Washington
Declaration made last weekend by major economies that pledged to
maintain free trade despite pressures to protect domestic
industries.
The leaders voiced confidence that the
crisis could be resolved by mid-2010, though they did not go much
beyond the steps outlined in the Group of 20 summit in
Washington.
"We are convinced that we can overcome
this crisis in a period of 18 months," the leaders said in a statement.
"We have already taken urgent and extraordinary steps to stabilize our
financial sectors and strengthen economic
growth."
The reassuring words were added early Sunday
to a declaration the leaders had signed off on the previous day.
Delegates from several countries said the changes were made overnight
at the request of the summit's host, Peruvian President Alan
Garcia.
"We have agreed that this meeting produce a
clear and firm statement that breaks the vicious cycle of anguish and
uncertainty," Garcia said Sunday. "We - united as the world's peoples,
governments and businesses - are going to beat the
crisis."
The 18-month timeline fits with a
calculation by the International Monetary Fund, which forecast
developed economies would grow barely 0.1 percent in 2009, and that the
world would emerge from the crisis the following
year.
But some delegates and analysts were skeptical
that the timetable was much more than wishful thinking, and some
leaders distanced themselves from the language. Mexican President
Felipe Calderon described the date as more of an estimate than a
prediction.
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper
went a step further.
"I think it would be speculative
to commit to that kind of timeline," he said.
And Dan
Price, an aide to George W. Bush, said the U.S. president thinks the
global economy can be fixed even faster.
"That
particular sentence was added by the president of Peru as the chair,"
Price said aboard Air Force One. "Certainly, some in the region may
think that recovery may take 18 months. President Bush believes that
the actions we are taking now will begin to produce results in the much
nearer term."
Vinod Aggarwal, director of the APEC
Study Center at the University of California-Berkeley, said the
timeline was useful in sending a signal to
markets.
"I don't think it will make that much
difference, but I don't think it hurts," he
said.
More important, he said, was the leaders'
agreement to send ministers to Geneva next month to jump-start the
so-called Doha round of World Trade Organization talks. Concern over
the global financial crisis has injected new urgency into the
negotiations, which collapsed in July.
In their final
declaration, the APEC leaders said they were deeply concerned about
instability in food prices, were committed to battling corruption and
piracy, and supported "decisive and effective long-term cooperation" to
combat climate change.
The leaders called for greater
APEC participation in the IMF and other multilateral lenders. Japan
said last week it was ready to lend up to $100 billion to the
Washington-based organization, but China has so far resisted entreaties
to dig into its $1.9 trillion in reserves.
The summit
could be the final foreign trip for George W. Bush as U.S. president.
Barack Obama replaces him on Jan. 20, and delegates in Lima said there
was little incentive to propose more concrete action without Obama's
presence.
Obama, who did not send representatives to
Lima, pressed forward back home, announcing a plan to save or create
2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010 and preparing to introduce leaders
of his economic team on Monday.
Harper said he
expects Canada to officially enter recession by the New Year and is
studying a financial stimulus package.
"If it is
necessary for there to be government spending to bolster domestic
consumption and stimulate investment markets, we will undertake those
measures," he said.