Posted by
Daniel Girard on Tuesday, November 25, 2008 4:05:07 AM
As a dangerous confrontation flared between China and Taiwan
in 1996, Bill Clinton deployed the Seventh Fleet to deter the two
rivals from going to war. Five years later, when a U.S. spy plane
collided with a Chinese fighter, George W. Bush faced a prolonged
international crisis. Meanwhile, human rights and democracy in China
were a perennial hot-button issue.
Now it's Barack
Obama's turn to deal with the China challenge, and this time, it's all
about the money. As the global financial system teeters, China, with
its $1.9 trillion in foreign reserves and slowing but still strong
economy, offers a potential lifeline.
The crisis that
Obama is inheriting has pushed aside the old points of contention and
underscored how profoundly the power equation between Washington and
Beijing has changed.
China now owns over
half-a-trillion dollars in U.S. government bonds, more than any other
country, and Washington needs Beijing to continue buying them to help
finance the national debt and the $700 billion financial industry
bailout.
And while China's economy is heavily
dependent on exports to the U.S., it is also a growing market for U.S.
products, making trade retaliation - long a threat wielded solely by
Washington - more of a two-way street.
"The power
shift in China-U.S. relations is making them more interdependent," said
Cheng Xiaohe, an international relations scholar at Beijing's Renmin
University. "This next president will need to exercise greater
caution."
When Clinton first ran for the White House,
he made human rights an issue, accusing then President George Bush of
"coddling" the communist dictatorship. But during his presidency, the
administration moved to uncouple human rights from trade privileges - a
milestone in normalizing ties between the two
powers.
During Bush's presidency, as Chinese exports
boomed, China's trade surplus hit $163.3 billion in 2007, becoming an
increasingly fractious political issue, even as the question of human
rights was moving to the fringes of the public
agenda.
In the Barack Obama-John McCain race, human
rights figured early when Tibetan unrest flared and Obama called on
Bush to boycott the Beijing Olympics. But the issue soon faded from his
talking points, and when relations with China briefly resurfaced, the
context was purely economic.
During the campaign,
Obama described China as "neither our enemy nor our friend; they're
competitors." He called for broad cooperation with Beijing while
repeating the accusation that the trade surplus was stoked by a Chinese
currency kept artificially cheap.
The currency has
been an especially hot topic in Congress and could arise again as an
irritant in relations. On Thursday, a congressional advisory panel
recommended Congress enact legislation to pressure Beijing into forcing
up the value of the yuan, thereby making Chinese imports more
expensive.
China is a veto-holding permanent member
of the U.N. Security Council and there are many other reasons why
Washington needs Beijing's help - to maintain detente in the Taiwan
Strait, strip North Korea of its nukes, and pressure Iran into
cooperating with nuclear inspections.
Throw in the
economy, and many expect Obama to take a mild approach toward Beijing
on issues of human rights, freedom of speech and
Tibet.
That would be a mistake, argues Wei Jingsheng,
the internationally renowned pro-democracy dissident whose imprisonment
and exile came to define the difficulties of the U.S.-China
relationship in the 1980s and 1990s.
Wei, who now
lives in Washington, D.C., maintains that the root of the economic
crisis lies in the trade imbalance with China, and that China's
industrial might is built on underpaid, badly treated workers. China
gets away with it because Western business doesn't want human rights
getting in the way of profits, he says.
In an
interview with The Associated Press, Wei rejected the idea of China as
the West's economic lifeline, saying China would have a hard time
saving its own economy and anyway wouldn't mind seeing the West
failing.
"This expectation of China to save the West
is only a dream," he said. "But why is this dream fanned up so much?
Because the big businesses in the West are pumping up this idea; they
do not want to see Western governments take severe measures against the
Chinese government."
He recalled the days when
Western governments and media were focused on Chinese human rights
abuses - "It is really because of their effort that people like me
survived" - and urged Obama to renew the pressure by establishing a
link between trade privileges and workers'
rights.
"It would be like killing two birds with one
stone - reducing the trade deficit while boosting rights for Chinese
workers," he said.
But Chinese scholars at
government-backed research bodies sound confident that no radical
changes in the relationship will happen under
Obama.
"Although we'll see some disputes around
issues like trade, human rights and climate change, the general
framework will be stable," said Jin Canrong, an expert on the U.S. at
Renmin University. "This is mature bilateral relations between two big
powers."